Locked methodology with correction transparency

Predictions are never edited after being made. When infrastructure issues affect data integrity, Ember publishes public correction notices—9 so far. The methodology stays locked for the full 365-day arc, with a Year 2 evaluation beginning at Day 300.

Live divergence alerts

When a model's probability diverges significantly from the crowd market price, Ember flags it as a high-conviction signal. These alerts are available in real-time to subscribers and highlight potential mispricings before they resolve.

What stands out

Three AI models call live markets daily, independently, before the outcome. Nothing edited. Every divergence logged and scored.

Ember's edge is its commitment to radical transparency in AI prediction. Unlike black-box forecasting systems, Ember publishes its full record—including correction notices for infrastructure issues—and never retroactively changes a call. The 365-day experiment forces the models to build a track record over time, making the Brier scores meaningful for evaluating whether AI can actually predict its own trajectory.

Worth checking out if…

You're interested in AI prediction accuracy as a measurable, public experiment rather than marketing claims. Traders looking for systematic divergence signals, developers building on prediction market data, and researchers studying AI forecasting will all find value in Ember's open methodology and live scoreboard. The $29/month Founding Arena tier gives access to live calls before public release, while the API starts at $299/month for institutional integration.